UN Warns: 70% Chance of Global Temperatures Exceeding 1.5°C

The United Nations has sounded a serious alarm over the growing climate crisis, revealing a 70% probability that the Earth’s average temperature will exceed the critical 1.5°C threshold during the period from 2025 to 2029. This warning comes from the latest annual report by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), the UN’s specialised agency for weather, climate, and water.

The report highlights that the alarming trend of record-breaking temperatures in 2023 and 2024 is expected to continue, with no significant cooling in sight. Ko Barrett, Deputy Secretary-General of WMO, emphasised that the last decade has included the hottest years ever recorded, and rising temperatures will increasingly impact human health, natural ecosystems, daily life, and global economies.

This trajectory poses a serious challenge to the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, which sought to limit global warming to below 2°C—and ideally closer to 1.5°C—above pre-industrial levels. That baseline refers to the global average temperatures from 1850 to 1900, before the surge in carbon emissions driven by fossil fuel use.

Projections from the WMO, incorporating data from global meteorological organisations such as the UK Met Office, show that between 2025 and 2029, average temperatures are likely to fall between 1.2°C and 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels. This points to a strong possibility that the planet will cross the 1.5°C safety mark during this period.

Climate expert Peter Thorne from Maynooth University in Ireland warned that the Earth is on course to permanently breach the 1.5°C threshold by the early 2030s. He added that within the next two to three years, the probability of this happening may reach nearly 100%.

Additionally, the WMO notes there’s an 80% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will surpass 2024 in heat, which already stands as the warmest year on record. This trend underscores the ongoing rise in greenhouse gas emissions, despite global efforts to reduce them.